Season Preview Year 5

Rather than posting long LM's on espn's fantasy site I am dragging over the fantasy hockey world of Sittin for a Deuce into the fantasy hockey world. This initial entry will be longer than most because this is the beginning of our 5th fantasy season. You've missed so much!

There will be weekly posts to review each matchup and preview the upcoming matchup. First- a little league history. After four complete seasons there has been three different champions. Chris took the 2014 cup and is reigning champion after winning the 2017 title. Ross won the 2015 cup and I took the 2016. For the first time in 5 seasons we have dropped from 20 teams to 16, trimming the habitual fat. There are five 5th year players, three 4th year, four third year, two 2nd years, and two new additions. Here's a quick summary of the players and where their NHL allegiance lies (nearest NHL city is Pittsburgh for most players):

5th years

• Chris (59-17, .776) Pittsburgh Penguins
• Myself (57-19, .750) Minnesota Wild
• Ross (56-20, .736) Pittsburgh Penguins
• Josh (51-25, .671) Minnesota Wild
• Kevin (40-36, .526) Chicago Blackhawks

4th years

• Todd (34-23, .552) Pittsburgh Penguins
• Ray (31-26, .543) Pittsburgh Penguins
• Jake (31-26, .543) Pittsburgh Penguins

3rd years

• Calista (28-10, .736) New York Islanders
• Mitch (21-17, .552) Detroit Red Wings
• Michael (16-22, .421) Philadelphia Flyers
• Jon (15-23, .394) Ottawa Senators

2nd years

• David (15-4, .789) Montreal Canadiens
• Austin (9-10, .474) Anaheim Ducks

1st years

• Reece Colorado Avalanche
• Ryan Philadelphia Flyers

The scoring system has been established for awhile. For skaters- 3pts for goals, 2pts for assists, 1pt for powerplay point, 2pts for short-handed goal, .5 per penalty minute and blocked shot, and 5 pt bonus for a hat trick. For goalies- 5 pts for a win, 3 bonus pts for a shutout, .2 per save, 1pt for overtime loss, and -1 per goal allowed.

Sunday night started the season off with another marathon draft taking just under three hours. 14 of the 16 were present for the draft. 5th year, Josh, missed his first draft ever, well the first 15 rounds,  and paid the consequences as goalies always fly off the board absurdly fast. EIGHT goalies were selected in the first round and after 48 picks- 20 goalies were gone. Somehow in all of the goalie drama Jake was still auto'd Martin Jones.

Now to the week 1 preview. The first week of the season is always a short week. This year it runs from Wednesday Oct 4th-Sunday Oct 8th. This short week has led to some fluke wins, but with a 19 week regular season, the first week doesn't much matter. There are several teams who only play once this matchup period: Boston, Carolina, New Jersey, and Vancouver. Could be hurting if your team consists of players from these four likely non-playoff teams. Mike, Ryan, and reigning champion Chris have 4 skaters from these teams. Josh and Reece own 5 which is worrisome for this matchup.
     On the other side, there are 4 teams that play 3 times in this five day window. If you own players off these teams- should be looking good week one. Montreal, New York R, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh. Ryan and Austin both have 4 from these teams, Jon has 5, and Dave has 6 players that will have 3 games this matchup. Before I get into head-to-head previews- here is the divisional layout though in the end mean little as the top 8 records go to the playoffs. The three champions have their separate divisions. Team names definitely may change throughout the season. Most of these are just carried over from last year.

Patrick

• Hot Carlson Chris
• Jagr Bomb Ryan
• Philadelphia Ghost-Bears Michael
• May The Schwartz Be With You Austin

Norris

• Seguin Genesis Myself
• The Saad Father Part II Kevin
• McFleury Ray
• Dat syuk IT Mitch

Adams

• Stone Mason Ross
• Thanks Obama Dave
• Since You Benn Gone Jake
• Turris Trap Jon

Smythe

• DiPietro in the Toilet Calista
• Eakin Disorder Josh
• Sunnyvale Samsquances Todd
• Remy Boyz Reece

For week one previews we will start off with Since You Benn Gone @ Hot Carlson. 
     This is the banner ceremony for Chris and Hot Carlson will be largely in attendance as he has 6 skaters and a likely goalie start, albeit Mike Smith, on opening night. Assuming Jake sets his lineup he will also have 4 skaters, including McDavid, and a goalie start in Martin Jones. This matchup should produce some fireworks on opening day. On the second day, Jake has almost double the skaters as Chris, but Chris has a home start for King Henrik against the AHL club, Colorado Avalanche. Nothing much going either way Friday and Saturday is a full card for the entire league it seems. This matchup very well could come down to the lone Sunday game NYR hosting Montreal. Both teams will be on an early back-to-back so there may be an early season start for one of these teams back up goalies. Though it'll be a tight match up I'm predicting Hot Carlson to win because he will get more goalie games and after missing the draft it is common for that team to also disengage from the season and not set their lines which would make Jake's team name very fitting.

DiPietro in the Toilet @ Stone Mason
     This is an interesting matchup as Calista has posted a .736 winning percentage in her first two seasons as well as a pair of runner up finishes. After 4 years, Ross also has a .736 winning percentage so both of these owners tend to fare well, neither have ever missed the playoffs. The loser of this matchup will likely be fine. Day one is basically Auston Matthews (DiP) v. Steve Mason (Sto). Not much going on opening day in this matchup. Calista has the definite advantage on Thursday with the lone goalie start in Rinne and quite a few more skaters. She should be leading heading into Friday when this matchup sees a semi-rare goalie matchup. Calista has Greiss and Ross has Bobs as the Isles travel to Columbus for a huge game in this matchup. Saturday is a loaded card but Calista may only receive Rinne's start as Greiss is unlikely to go b2b and I'd be surprised if Hellebyuk plays over Mason unless Mason really struggles in their opener. Ross however took Joonas Korpisalo to sew up most every Columbus game and should get the Columbus and Winnipeg start on saturday. He also has Vasilevskiy in Tampa so he may be choosing two of his three starts. This comes as no surprise as Ross usually leads most goalie categories. That being said I'm predicting DiPietro in the Toilet to edge him out. Winnipeg starts should be worth much and she has a stronger forward/d-men core.

McFleury @ Seguin Genesis
     This matchup is interesting to me because it is my matchup. As a Wild fan I drafted Tarasenko first since he averaged six goals a game against Minnesota. Hopefully the Senko/Schenn combo can outscore Phil Kessel on opening day as not much is happening here. Mostly full cards for both sides on Thursday as well as some goalie games. Ray took Dubnyk who should win at Little Caesars, a pizza franchise on par with Detroit Red Wings lately. I have what should be two goalie losses in Lehner hosting Montreal and potentially Raanta at Anaheim. Now sounding less rare, Friday is a big goalie game within this matchup that has to favor me. Ben Bishop and the Dallas Stars will be hosting MAF and the Vegas whatever they are called. Ray has both Fleury and Pickard so whichever they choose to send out for the slaughter- he will have the start. Banking on Seguin stepping up instantly. Drafted him again as he and Benn were a tandem that led me to my lone fantasy title two seasons ago. Saturday is a full card with likely another goalie match as Vegas heads to Arizona to hopefully take on Raanta. That game is a toss up. Sunday I am idle and he has two rangers, Kreider and Buchnevich. Predicting Seguin Genesis to take this matchup.

Thanks Obama @ May the Schwartz Be With You
     I will likely just start typing Schwartz when referencing Austin's team, but this matchup between both 2nd year players should be a good one. Last season Austin seemed like a lock for the playoffs but had a horrible 2nd half and fell to 9-10 while Dave had a very solid first fantasy season at 15-4. Both guys drafted very strong, all around teams. Austin will instantly benefit from taking stars from both Pittsburgh (Crosby) and Philadelphia (Giroux and Voracek) as both of those teams play 3 times over this short matchup period. They are all in action along with St. Louis goalie Jake Allen for Austin on opening night. Since Dave only has 4 skaters going, he should start the week off behind. Thursday should swing things back in Dave's favor as he gets 2 solid starts from Price and Anderson as well as more active skaters. After a likely quiet Friday both teams have full cards Saturday and that should decide the matchup. I think this will be a tight matchup, but predict Thanks Obama will take the win as he has the most active final day in the league. The lone Sunday game will see Austin's Brandon Gallagher against Dave's Montreal goalie (owns both) and FIVE skaters. So if Austin wants to win he needs a decent lead heading into Sunday.

Jagr Bomb @ The Saad Father Part II
     This 1st year v. 5th year matchup should start off lopsided as Kevin has a loaded opening night with 10 skaters and Andersen in net for Toronto against a likely worse Winnipeg. Ryan will push back when both Rask and Gibson debut the following night, but Kevin will still get a Crawford and Kane game which could help him maintain his lead. Quiet Friday with the biggest potential being Jamie Benn v. Vegas for Ryan. Saturday is a full card for both except Ryan will only get one goalie start as he will suffer from Rask and Boston only playing once in the opening week. With a quiet Sunday for both I think The Saad Father Part II will take command of the matchup Saturday and win. Kevin is looking to finally have a breakthrough season as he has been stuck in the middle of the pack with 2 9-10 seasons and 2 11-8 seasons.

Sunnyvale Samsquances @ Eakin Disorder
     The last of the 5th year players to be previewed, purposely because he was the last to the draft, Josh is putting his 4 yr playoff streak at risk by not drafting his own team. Currently without a starting goaltender he will be hurting until he lands one. He is going up against argueably the best goalie in the league in Braden Holtby and Philadelphia's latest attempt to plug the holes on their boat- Brian Elliott who starts on opening night for Todd. Holtby debut's Thursday an Todd has a 4 skater advantage on that night so he should have a decent lead heading into the weekend. Friday is a pretty evenly quiet day with Josh highlighted by Kucherov and Todd seeing Panarin and Atkinson likely skate together. Full card both ways Saturday except Josh has zero goalie games, as of now. Colorado's goalies are available though they should have several starts that net their owners negative points this season. The only action Sunday is Andy Shaw for Todd who averages 10+ PIM a game because he's a jackass. His penalty points won't be needed though as Sunnyvale Samsquances should take the W.

Philadelphia Ghost-Bears @ Dat-syuk It
     A pair of 3rd year players who have not had the most success (only 1 playoff appearance between the two) will look to start the year off with a win. Michael should start off ahead regardless of whether or not his team mascot, Shayne Gostisbehere suits up on opening day. Talbot should be favored for the day one goalie win. Since the Flyers start the year off with a back to back I imagine Michael will get a Neuvirth start on Thursday against Mitch's Jonathan Quick and the LA Kings. Mitch also may have a start in Jimmy Howard pending on which goalie Detroit decides to let lose first. Mitch should bridge the gap on Friday as he will have 4 skaters highlighted by Tavares against only a lone d-man. Saturday is a full card except both will only have likely one goalie start. I believe Mitch's forwards have a slight advantage but Michael should get an easy goalie win and big night by Leon when Edmonton hosts Vancouver. With nothing but a few d-men active Sunday I am giving the slight nod to Philadelphia Ghost-Bears although this match up is a toss up.

Turris Trap @ Remy Boyz
     For a first time player, Reece couldn't have asked for an easier matchup owner wise as Jon has the worst active winning percentage (.394) heading into his third season. Jon enters opening night with a 5-2 skater advantage, but Reece has a Matt Murray start and one of his two skaters is probably the best of the 7 active in Patrik Laine. Well, Malkin is pretty good too. Interestingly, Penguins start the season off with a back to back and their back up goaltender is owned by-Jon. Both teams have a dozen skaters Thursday so they should be posting some higher numbers. Quiet Friday except Jon is getting a Luongo start in Florida. Full cards Saturday and coming off a back to back Reece may receive a Budaj start in Tampa bay to go along with another Murray start. I predict Reece will head into Saturday behind, but pull ahead on that day. Seems like a very strong day for his team. With a 3-2 skater lead for Reece Sunday he should be able to hold off any last second comeback and Remy Boyz should start off with a win.

Making predictions was pretty difficult as I feel every team is very strong if the rosters are set. Didn't realize just how much stronger every team would get just by axing 4 teams. I really dig the 16 team setup and will likely keep these settings locked in moving forward. Really looking forward to the start of another hockey season and another first round exit for Minnesota Wild. I'd rather wach my team get crushed than not have any hockey to watch at all.

Next time:

Monday October 9th I will post my recap of the first week with results, highlights, video clips, etc. This blog is designed to be an upgrade to the LM messages on ESPN and a way of starting archives for the league, but if anyone outside of the league starts following along, well that'd be cool.